Office of the Washington State Climatologist

Climate Outlook

What’s Next for the Pacific Northwest?

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO): El Niño currently, La Niña likely by summer

According to the Climate Prediction Center (CPC), El Niño is currently present in the tropical equatorial Pacific Ocean and an “El Niño Advisory” is still in effect. There has been some weakening in the sub-surface ocean temperatures along the equatorial Pacific Ocean and in the atmospheric component of El Niño. El Niño is still likely to transition to neutral conditions during the April-May-June period (79% chance). In addition, the CPC issued a “La Niña Watch” on February 8, owing to model predictions now showing a higher likelihood of La Niña (55% chance) compared to neutral (42% chance) by June-July-August. This serves as a switch from previous ENSO model runs, which showed neutral conditions more likely through the summer. Still, the impacts of El Niño are expected to be felt this spring, as reflected by the CPC seasonal outlooks featured below.

What does this mean for Washington in the coming months?

The CPC one month temperature outlook for March indicates higher chances of above normal temperatures statewide. The odds of above normal temperatures are relatively high and between 50 and 60% on the three-tiered scale. The March precipitation outlook indicates higher chances of below normal precipitation statewide. The probabilities range from 33 to 50% on the three-tiered scale, depending on location.

The three-month outlook for March through May (MAM) has a high probability of above normal temperatures across all of Washington State, with the odds between 60 and 70% on the three-tiered scale for a majority of the state. For spring precipitation, there are higher chances of below normal precipitation statewide. The chances of below normal precipitation are greater for eastern Washington (between 40 and 50%) compared to lesser odds for the rest of the state (between 33 and 40%).

Last Updated: 2/15/2024

Climate Prediction Resources

NWS Local 3-Month Temperature Outlook
Select a location plotted on the map to view the local outlook.

Quillayute Port Angeles Hoquiam Centralia Olympia Seattle-Tacoma Mount Vernon Astoria, OR Hillsboro, OR Portland, OR Troutdale, OR Government Camp, OR Hood River, OR The Dalles, OR Pendleton, OR Richland Walla Walla Lewiston, ID Pullman Spokane Republic Omak Ross Dam Bellingham Plain Cle Elum Mt. Rainier-Paradise Yakima Ellensburg Wenatchee Ephrata

The links below provide access to global and regional climate predictions.

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