Climate Outlook
What’s Next for the Pacific Northwest?
El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO): Neutral Conditions
Neutral ENSO conditions are currently present in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, but the CPC has issued a “La Niña Watch” indicating the possibility of La Niña developing in the Fall. There has been some cooling in the tropical Pacific Ocean over the last 4 weeks, and equatorial sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies are mostly negative at the time of this writing. Current ENSO models have the chances of La Niña developing by October-November-December at 67%, neutral conditions remaining at 32%, and the unlikely chances of El Niño developing at 1%.
What does this mean for Washington in the coming months?
The CPC one month outlook for September has increased chances of above normal temperatures for the entire state. There are higher chances of above normal temperatures in eastern WA than in western WA. The September precipitation outlook has slightly increased chances of below normal precipitation east of the Cascades. Areas west of the Cascades have equal chances of below, equal to, or above normal September precipitation.
The three-month outlook for Fall (September through November; SON) has equal chances of below, equal to, or above normal temperatures for nearly the entire state. The very southern border of WA has increased chances (between 33 and 40% chances on a three-tier scale) of above normal temperatures for SON. The Fall precipitation outlook calls for higher chances of above normal precipitation for western WA but equal chances of below, equal to, or normal precipitation in eastern WA.
Last Updated: 8/19/2021
Climate Prediction Resources
NWS Local 3-Month Temperature Outlook
Select a location plotted on the map to view the local outlook.
The links below provide access to global and regional climate predictions.
- The Current State of the Tropical Pacific:
- Predictions of the Tropical Pacific:
- Predictions of U.S. Climate Anomalies
