Climate Outlook
What’s Next for the Pacific Northwest?
Neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Conditions
According to the Climate Prediction Center (CPC), neutral conditions are present in the equatorial Pacific. Sea-surface temperatures over the last month were mostly normal to above normal throughout the equatorial Pacific, and anomalies have become slightly more positive. ENSO forecast models indicate a higher likelihood of neutral conditions extending through the December-January-February period (69%) compared to either El Niño (24%) or La Niña (7%) development.
What does this mean for Washington in the coming months?
The CPC December temperature outlook has higher chances of above normal temperatures for most of western WA and south central WA. The remainder of the state, including Whatcom county and north central WA have equal chances of below, equal to, or above normal temperatures. The December precipitation outlook has increased chances of above normal precipitation statewide.
The CPC 3-month (December-January-February; DJF) outlook is calling for higher chances of above normal temperatures statewide. The DJF precipitation outlook now has increased chances of above normal precipitation statewide, which is a change from the seasonal forecasts that were issued earlier in the fall. According to the Climate Prediction Center, this change is relying mostly on the seasonal climate forecast model output and recent winter trends.
Last Updated: 11/21/2019
Climate Prediction Resources
NWS Local 3-Month Temperature Outlook
Select a location plotted on the map to view the local outlook.
The links below provide access to global and regional climate predictions.
- The Current State of the Tropical Pacific:
- Predictions of the Tropical Pacific:
- Predictions of U.S. Climate Anomalies
