Climate Outlook
What’s Next for the Pacific Northwest?
El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO): La Niña
La Niña is still present in the equatorial Pacific but has shown some signs of weakening. Negative sea-surface temperature anomalies throughout the eastern equatorial Pacific have weakened over the last month. ENSO models are indicating that a weak La Niña will continue throughout the summer and will likely persist into fall and winter 2022-23. There is a 66% chance of La Niña conditions by October-December, compared to 32 and 2% for neutral and El Niño conditions, respectively.
What does this mean for Washington in the coming months?
The CPC one month temperature outlook for August has higher chances of above normal temperatures for all of eastern Washington and in south central WA. For the Olympic Peninsula and the Puget Sound region, there are equal chances of below, equal to, or above normal August temperatures. There is little indication of how August precipitation will turn out; there are equal chances of below, equal to, or above normal precipitation statewide except for far eastern WA, where there is a small sliver of the state where there are higher chances of below normal precipitation.
The three-month outlook for August through October (ASO) is calling for increased chances of above normal temperatures statewide. August through October precipitation is uncertain, as there are equal chances of below, equal to, or above normal precipitation statewide.
Last Updated: 7/21/2022
Climate Prediction Resources
NWS Local 3-Month Temperature Outlook
Select a location plotted on the map to view the local outlook.
The links below provide access to global and regional climate predictions.
- The Current State of the Tropical Pacific:
- Predictions of the Tropical Pacific:
- Predictions of U.S. Climate Anomalies
