Climate Outlook
What’s Next for the Pacific Northwest?
El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO): La Niña Conditions
On May 13, the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) announced that La Niña in the equatorial Pacific Ocean had ended and issued the final “La Niña Advisory”. Neutral conditions are present, and are expected to remain throughout the summer; the chances of neutral conditions for July through September are 78%. ENSO forecast models are projecting higher chances of a return to La Niña conditions in Fall 2021 (50%), though neutral conditions are also possible (43%). ENSO forecasts for fall will become more reliable in the coming months.
What does this mean for Washington in the coming months?
The CPC outlooks for July and beyond are showing higher chances of continued dry conditions for WA state. The CPC one month outlook for July has increased chances of above normal temperatures for most of the state. The exception is coastal WA, the Olympic Peninsula, southwest WA, and the northern Puget Sound, where there are equal chances of below, equal to, or above normal temperatures. The July precipitation outlook has increased chances of below normal precipitation statewide. The probability of below normal precipitation is higher in eastern WA including the Cascade Mountains with chances exceeding 40%.
The three-month outlook for July through September (JAS) has increased chances of above normal temperatures statewide, with probabilities exceeding 50% on the three-tier scale for southeastern WA. The JAS precipitation outlook calls for higher chances of below normal precipitation statewide.
Last Updated: 6/17/2021
Climate Prediction Resources
NWS Local 3-Month Temperature Outlook
Select a location plotted on the map to view the local outlook.
The links below provide access to global and regional climate predictions.
- The Current State of the Tropical Pacific:
- Predictions of the Tropical Pacific:
- Predictions of U.S. Climate Anomalies
