Office of the Washington State Climatologist

Climate Outlook

What’s Next for the Pacific Northwest?

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO): Neutral Conditions

The final La Niña Advisory was issued by the Climate Prediction Center on March 9, and the La Niña has ended. El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are now neutral. The La Niña signal is dissipating faster in the ocean system than the atmosphere. In other words, there are still low level easterly winds across the tropical Pacific, even though sea surface temperatures are warmer than normal or normal across the basin. Regardless, ENSO models have the odds of neutral conditions the highest through the May-July period (at 62%).

What does this mean for Washington in the coming months?

The CPC one month temperature outlook for April has increased chances of below normal temperatures for the entire state. The odds are relatively high on the three-tiered scale, with the CPC forecasting the probability of below normal temperatures between 40 and 50%. The April precipitation outlook is uncertain: there are equal chances of below, equal to, or above normal precipitation statewide.

The three-month outlook for April through June (AMJ) is uncertain for temperature, but indicating higher chances of below normal precipitation. The chances of below normal precipitation are higher for the western two-thirds of the state, between 40 and 50% on the three-tiered scale, and slightly less for the remainder of the state (between 33 and 40%).

Last Updated: 3/17/2023

Climate Prediction Resources

NWS Local 3-Month Temperature Outlook
Select a location plotted on the map to view the local outlook.

Quillayute Port Angeles Hoquiam Centralia Olympia Seattle-Tacoma Mount Vernon Astoria, OR Hillsboro, OR Portland, OR Troutdale, OR Government Camp, OR Hood River, OR The Dalles, OR Pendleton, OR Richland Walla Walla Lewiston, ID Pullman Spokane Republic Omak Ross Dam Bellingham Plain Cle Elum Mt. Rainier-Paradise Yakima Ellensburg Wenatchee Ephrata

The links below provide access to global and regional climate predictions.