Climate Outlook
What’s Next for the Pacific Northwest?
Neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Conditions
The remaining El Niño conditions weakened to neutral ENSO conditions in early August, with the Climate Prediction Center issuing the final “El Niño Advisory” on August 8. Sea-surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean are now above normal in the western Pacific and below normal in the central and eastern Pacific. ENSO forecast models indicate a higher likelihood of neutral conditions extending through the December-January-February period (58%) compared to either El Niño (29%) or La Niña (13%) development.
What does this mean for Washington in the coming months?
The CPC October temperature outlook has increased chances of above normal temperatures for all of WA state, with chances exceeding 40% on a three-tiered system. For October precipitation, the outlook shows higher chances for above normal precipitation statewide. The northern tier of the state has slightly higher chances (>40%) of above normal precipitation.
The CPC fall (October-November-December; OND) outlook has increased chances of above normal temperatures statewide. On the other hand, OND precipitation is more uncertain with equal chances of below, equal to, or above normal precipitation for the period.
Last Updated: 9/19/2019
Climate Prediction Resources
NWS Local 3-Month Temperature Outlook
Select a location plotted on the map to view the local outlook.
The links below provide access to global and regional climate predictions.
- The Current State of the Tropical Pacific:
- Predictions of the Tropical Pacific:
- Predictions of U.S. Climate Anomalies
