Climate Outlook
What’s Next for the Pacific Northwest?
El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO): La Niña Now Present
A “La Niña Advisory” was issued on October 14 due to conditions developing in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, and La Niña is now present. The coupled atmosphere-ocean system in the tropical Pacific is reflecting La Niña conditions with below normal sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies, low-level easterly and upper-level westerly wind anomalies, and below normal sub-surface ocean temperatures. According to ENSO models, there’s a higher probability that La Niña will persist through the February through April period, but the chances are about equal for either La Niña (50%) or neutral conditions (49%) by the March through May period.
What does this mean for Washington in the coming months?
The CPC one month outlook for January has increased chances of below normal temperatures for nearly the entire state. A small section of southeastern WA has equal chances of below, equal to, or above normal January temperatures. January precipitation is expected to be above normal statewide, with between a 40 and 50% chance on the three-tier scale for a majority of the state.
The three-month outlook for January through March (JFM) is similar to the January outlook. There are increased chances of below normal temperatures and increased precipitation statewide.
Last Updated: 12/16/2021
Climate Prediction Resources
NWS Local 3-Month Temperature Outlook
Select a location plotted on the map to view the local outlook.
The links below provide access to global and regional climate predictions.
- The Current State of the Tropical Pacific:
- Predictions of the Tropical Pacific:
- Predictions of U.S. Climate Anomalies
