Climate Outlook
What’s Next for the Pacific Northwest?
El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO): La Niña Now Present
La Niña is still present in the equatorial Pacific but has shown some signs of weakening. Sea-surface temperature anomalies throughout the equatorial Pacific have weakened over the last month, for example. Still, ENSO models are indicating that La Niña conditions will strengthen and persist in the fall and winter 2022-23. There is a 59% chance of La Niña conditions by October-December, compared to 37 and 4% for neutral and El Niño conditions, respectively.
What does this mean for Washington in the coming months?
The CPC one month temperature outlook for July has higher chances of below normal temperatures in western Washington. Eastern WA has equal chances of below, equal to, or above normal July temperatures. There is little indication of how July precipitation will turn out; there are equal chances of below, equal to, or above normal precipitation statewide.
The three-month outlook for July through September (JAS) is calling for increased chances of above normal temperatures for a majority of eastern WA. Western and north central WA have equal chances of below, equal to, or above normal temperatures. The summer precipitation outlook has elevated chances of below normal precipitation in eastern WA, with the odds between 33 and 40% on the three-tiered scale. The remainder of the state has equal chances of below, equal to, or above normal JAS precipitation.
Last Updated: 6/16/2022
Climate Prediction Resources
NWS Local 3-Month Temperature Outlook
Select a location plotted on the map to view the local outlook.
The links below provide access to global and regional climate predictions.
- The Current State of the Tropical Pacific:
- Predictions of the Tropical Pacific:
- Predictions of U.S. Climate Anomalies
