Office of the Washington State Climatologist

Climate Outlook

What’s Next for the Pacific Northwest?

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO): La Niña

La Niña conditions are still present in the equatorial Pacific Ocean and a “La Niña Advisory” remains in effect, according to the Climate Prediction Center (CPC). There has been some weakening of the below normal ocean temperature anomalies over the last several weeks, but the atmospheric component of La Niña has not yet weakened. According to ENSO models, La Niña will transition to neutral conditions sometime this spring, though the exact timing is uncertain. The latest models indicate that the chances of neutral conditions reach 82% by March-May compared to 14% for La Niña.

What does this mean for Washington in the coming months?

The CPC one month temperature outlook for February has increased chances of below normal temperatures for the entire state. The odds are relatively high on the three-tiered scale, with the CPC forecasting the probability of below normal temperatures between 40 and 50%. The February precipitation outlook has higher chances of above normal precipitation statewide, with slightly lower chances in southwest Washington and the Olympic Peninsula compared to the rest of the state.

The three-month outlook for February through April (FMA) calls for increased chances of below normal temperatures statewide. FMA precipitation is expected to be above normal in eastern Washington. Total FMA precipitation for western Washington is uncertain: there are equal chances of below, equal to, or above normal precipitation.

Last Updated: 1/19/2023

Climate Prediction Resources

NWS Local 3-Month Temperature Outlook
Select a location plotted on the map to view the local outlook.

Quillayute Port Angeles Hoquiam Centralia Olympia Seattle-Tacoma Mount Vernon Astoria, OR Hillsboro, OR Portland, OR Troutdale, OR Government Camp, OR Hood River, OR The Dalles, OR Pendleton, OR Richland Walla Walla Lewiston, ID Pullman Spokane Republic Omak Ross Dam Bellingham Plain Cle Elum Mt. Rainier-Paradise Yakima Ellensburg Wenatchee Ephrata

The links below provide access to global and regional climate predictions.