Office of the Washington State Climatologist

Climate Outlook

What’s Next for the Pacific Northwest?

Neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Conditions

The remaining El Niño conditions weakened to neutral ENSO conditions in early August, with the Climate Prediction Center issuing the final “El Niño Advisory” on August 8. Sea-surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean are now above normal in the western Pacific and below normal in the central and eastern Pacific. ENSO forecast models indicate a higher likelihood of neutral conditions extending through the December-January-February period (58%) compared to either El Niño (29%) or La Niña (13%) development.

What does this mean for Washington in the coming months?

The CPC October temperature outlook has increased chances of above normal temperatures for all of WA state, with chances exceeding 40% on a three-tiered system. For October precipitation, the outlook shows higher chances for above normal precipitation statewide. The northern tier of the state has slightly higher chances (>40%) of above normal precipitation.

The CPC fall (October-November-December; OND) outlook has increased chances of above normal temperatures statewide. On the other hand, OND precipitation is more uncertain with equal chances of below, equal to, or above normal precipitation for the period.

Last Updated: 9/19/2019

Climate Prediction Resources

NWS Local 3-Month Temperature Outlook
Select a location plotted on the map to view the local outlook.

Quillayute Port Angeles Hoquiam Centralia Olympia Seattle-Tacoma Mount Vernon Astoria, OR Hillsboro, OR Portland, OR Troutdale, OR Government Camp, OR Hood River, OR The Dalles, OR Pendleton, OR Richland Walla Walla Lewiston, ID Pullman Spokane Republic Omak Ross Dam Bellingham Plain Cle Elum Mt. Rainier-Paradise Yakima Ellensburg Wenatchee Ephrata

The links below provide access to global and regional climate predictions.