Office of the Washington State Climatologist

Climate Outlook

What’s Next for the Pacific Northwest?

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO): Neutral ENSO conditions, La Niña likely by late summer

According to the Climate Prediction Center (CPC), the El Niño in the tropical equatorial Pacific Ocean has ended and ENSO-neutral conditions are now present. Sea-surface temperature anomalies have become below normal in the eastern tropical Pacific and remained above normal in the western tropical Pacific Ocean. The latest ENSO models show higher chances of a transition to La Niña conditions during the July-August-September period (65% chance) compared to neutral conditions remaining (34%). A “La Niña Watch” has been issued and the likelihood of La Niña increases into next fall and winter. The chances of La Niña during November-December-January are at 85%. The developing La Niña is unlikely to have much of an effect on our summer weather.

What does this mean for Washington in the coming months?

The CPC one month temperature outlook for July indicates higher chances of above normal temperatures for just the far eastern portion of the state. This represents a change from previous outlooks, and now the remainder of the state has equal chances of below, equal to, or above normal July temperatures. The July precipitation outlook indicates higher chances of below normal precipitation statewide.

The late summer outlook (July-August-September; JAS) is also calling for equal chances of below, equal to, or above normal temperatures for a majority of the state. The eastern quarter of the state bordering Idaho has a higher probability of above normal temperatures, with the odds between 33 and 40% on the three-tiered scale. For precipitation, there are higher chances of below normal precipitation for only the eastern quarter of the state. Late summer precipitation for the rest of the state is uncertain: there are equal chances of below, equal to, or above normal precipitation.

Last Updated: 6/20/2024

Climate Prediction Resources

NWS Local 3-Month Temperature Outlook
Select a location plotted on the map to view the local outlook.

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The links below provide access to global and regional climate predictions.

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