Climate Outlook
What’s Next for the Pacific Northwest?
El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO): Neutral ENSO conditions, La Niña likely by late fall/early winter
According to the Climate Prediction Center (CPC), ENSO-neutral conditions are still present in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Sea-surface temperature anomalies have been near-normal to below normal in the eastern and east-central tropical Pacific, and remained above normal in the western tropical Pacific Ocean. The transition from neutral conditions to La Niña has been slower than originally anticipated. The latest ENSO models are predicting La Niña development by the December-January-February period and the odds of a La Niña compared to neutral conditions are also lower than previously indicated. The chances of La Niña during November-December-January are 74% compared to neutral conditions (26%). While the event is expected to be weak, there can still be an influence on Washington’s average winter conditions. The expected development of La Niña is one of the many factors taken into account by the CPC outlooks highlighted below.
What does this mean for Washington in the coming months?
The CPC one month temperature outlook for December indicates equal chances of above normal, equal to, or below normal temperatures all of Washington. In other words, average December temperatures are uncertain. The December precipitation outlook indicates higher chances of above normal precipitation across the state. Odds of above normal precipitation are highest across eastern Washington, with the chances between 40 and 50% on the three-tiered scale.
The winter (December-January-February; DJF) outlook is reflecting the typical La Niña influence on our weather. There’s between a 40 and 50% chance of below normal temperatures statewide. For precipitation, there are slightly higher chances (between 33 and 40%) of above normal precipitation across the entire state.
Last Updated: 11/21/2024
Climate Prediction Resources
NWS Local 3-Month Temperature Outlook
Select a location plotted on the map to view the local outlook.
The links below provide access to global and regional climate predictions.
- The Current State of the Tropical Pacific:
- Predictions of the Tropical Pacific:
- Predictions of U.S. Climate Anomalies
