Climate Outlook
What’s Next for the Pacific Northwest?
El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO): Neutral ENSO conditions, La Niña likely by late fall
According to the Climate Prediction Center (CPC), ENSO-neutral conditions are present in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Sea-surface temperature anomalies have remained below normal in the eastern and east-central tropical Pacific, and remained above normal in the western tropical Pacific Ocean. The transition from neutral conditions to La Niña has been slower than originally anticipated. The latest ENSO models are now predicting La Niña development by the September-October-November period and the odds of a La Niña compared to neutral conditions are also lower than previously indicated. The chances of La Niña during September-October-November are 66% compared to neutral conditions (33%). The chances of La Niña peak during the November-December-January three-month period at 74%. Regardless, the expected development of La Niña is one of the many factors taken into account by the CPC outlooks highlighted below.
What does this mean for Washington in the coming months?
The CPC one month temperature outlook for September indicates equal chances of above normal, equal to, or below normal temperatures for a majority of the state. In other words, average September temperatures are uncertain. There are slightly higher odds of above normal temperatures in an isolated area of southeastern Washington. The September precipitation outlook indicates higher chances of above normal precipitation across western Washington. Eastern Washington has equal chances of below, equal to, or above normal September precipitation.
The fall (September-October-November; SON) outlook is very similar to the September outlook. There are equal chances of above, equal to, or below normal temperatures for a majority of the state. Southeastern Washington has elevated odds of above normal SON temperatures. For precipitation, there are higher chances of above normal precipitation for the western two-thirds of the state including the Olympic Peninsula, western Washington, and central Washington. The rest of the state is uncertain: there are equal chances of below, equal to, or above normal SON precipitation.
Last Updated: 8/15/2024
Climate Prediction Resources
NWS Local 3-Month Temperature Outlook
Select a location plotted on the map to view the local outlook.
The links below provide access to global and regional climate predictions.
- The Current State of the Tropical Pacific:
- Predictions of the Tropical Pacific:
- Predictions of U.S. Climate Anomalies
