~ 94 mph ~
December 3, 2007
Probably the Strongest Storm on Record at Astoria, OR

My Journal Notes

Before The Storm: Nov 30 to Dec 01, 2007

"I am sure Mark is very busy this evening, but I would sure like your guys' thoughts on the upcoming snow and wind potential. This has to be one of the rarest 1-2 punches I have seen in a long time, should the models verify. Tonight's MM5 NAM now shows a 965mb monster low heading to Vanc Is. That is 20mb deeper than just 2 runs (12 hours) ago. That is after lowland snow Saturday. "The GFS, which was showing almost nothing, now shows a 1-2 punch with a 980mb low into WA Coast followed by that 942mb gigantic thing well off shore. It looks as if the NAM and GFS have swapped solutions. I am dizzy. If you take an average of the two, we could see a 970mb low inside of 130w somewhere in the next 72 hours. This pattern is very confusing. SP"

"I'm looking at the MM5-GFS. That's quite a neat little development with that low just offshore of Washington that remains semi-stationary while central pressure goes down to 994 mb. I can't recall seeing that kind of thing happen any time recently. That alone would be a very unique event, so I have to wonder about the whole weekend forecast... Anyway, since OR stays south of this stationary low, I think lowland snow will be somewhat limited here (but would happily be proven wrong). "Now that 982-985 mb low into Tatoosh Island, that's interesting, too, but the model seems to show this cyclone loosing energy very quickly as it nears the coast--seems like the next low in line is cutting off some of the energy, and choking off the lead system. This is a bit reminiscent of 18 Oct 2007. So, perhaps not a major wind-maker, but the coast looks to get a decent gale. "Now the MM5-NAM, with that sub-970 mb system onto the north end of Vancouver Island on a NE track. It's not the best setup for high winds in the interior. However, there have been a few scenarios that suggest some potential: 21 Dec 1940 and 27 Oct 1950 (the second event). In this scenario, the coast again has the best shot at a significant gale. "I'm very keen on that monster sub-950 mb low, tropically fed from multiple sources, on track for some weather fun early next week (if these forecasts hold). Wow! 945 mb = 27.90". That would be something. ~960 mb lows have landed in the OR/WA (maybe about once or twice a century). Why not a 945? Gives an idea about potential all-time barometric minima in our region, especially for coastal stations. Looks like next week's system will recurve way offshore, so barometric records shouldn't be threatened this time around."

"Not if NOGAPS is right. Big-time wind on Sunday night, big-time rain Monday and Monday night. Rain-on-snow event. Stay out of the rivers. "OTOH, we've already had hurricane-strength winds this year on the Oregon Coast, so the part about 'we never forecasted that before' is probably just a technicality. GT"

"What I think is going on with the 'hurricane force wind warning' is that it is for very extreme events. Average (1-min, 2-min) winds have to be 65-knots or greater. Save for headlands areas in favored parts of the coast, these extreme values are quite rare. I suspect that the NWS Portland wouldn't issue such extreme warnings for events that just strike the coastal headlands with hurricane-force winds because they are so limited in area-of-effect. Don't want to get into the "cry wolf" syndrome. My take on these warnings is that they would be issued if there's a likelihood that hurricane-force wind velocities would strike more inland, say more broadly over the coastal communities--when average winds would reach hurricane force at the METAR stations, like AST, ONP or OTH. Since the inception of ASOS, this hasn't happened. At times over the years, peak average winds have gone into the 45 to 55 mph range at these stations, but not 75-mph-plus. It's interesting--they say a 5-to-10-year event. I don't think so. More like a 25-year event. If a 'hurricane force wind warning' is issued, what this implies, to me, is that it's time to panic (if you're in the area of the warnings). We're talking CDS. :o) "I'd be surprised if the Sun-Tue 'mega'-low produces a CDS-level event, though it looks to be very strong (the pressure gradient orientation seems, to me, to be too SE-favored, instead of S--if this were over the San Joaquin Valley, then yeah!). However, one thing that's important here is the rarity of such deep lows. If the storm goes well below 950 mb, then we're treading into a gray area. Not much climatological history to go on with such massive lows, as they don't occur very frequently. There could be some interesting surprises. "George, I liked your 'hybrid' comment. There is a bit of that Dec 1995 flavor to some of the model output."

Hurricane Force Wind Warning From the NWS Glossary "Hurricane Force Wind Warning: A warning for sustained winds, or frequent gusts, of 64 knots (74 mph) or greater, either predicted or occurring, and not directly associated with a tropical cyclone." According to Steve Todd, of NWS Portland, this warning only applies to coastal waters. For the Pacific Northwest, there is no land-based hurricane-force wind warning at the time of this writing. Some discussion of an "extreme high wind warning" for inland areas has occurred, but is tentative.

Two Storms Strike: Dec 02 to Dec 03, 2007

Buoy 46002 at 42.57ºN and 130.46ºW showed a low pressure of 991.8 mb (29.29") with SSW winds at 31 mph gusting 40 at 05:50. As of the most recent observation at 06:50, the barometer had elevated to 29.31" and the winds were 29 mph gusting 36. Temperature was a toasty 57.2ºF. Highest winds were S 38 mph gusting 47 at 03:50 as the low center closed on the vicinity. Max hourly pressure falls were from 29.53" at 00:50 to 29.46" at 01:50 and 29.39" at 02:50. Though the low is pssing a couple degrees north of this station, these conditions don't reflect a super-intense storm. But certainly forceful.

Doing a search for other observations within 250 nautical miles of this data buoy, a ship report from 06:00, located at 42.60ºN and 125.30ºW, showed average winds of 59 mph and 18 foot waves in the vicinity. Buoy 46005, located 46.05ºN and 131.02ºW, some 210 nautical miles to the north (354º) of Buoy 46002, still shows a fast-falling barometer at 06:50 with a reading of 29.21". The pressure fell 0.05" in the last hour and 0.15" in the last three. That's a low pressure of 989.2 mb so far, and with E winds of 16 mph gusting 21, the low hasn't passed to the north or east of this station yet. A chilly air temperature of 42.8ºF contrasts sharply against the warmth at Buoy 46005. A ship at 50.00ºN and 131.10ºW reports a pressure of 29.38" with northerly winds at 15 knots.

Locally, Corvallis at 07:55 showed an altimeter of 29.65" and falling rapidly (0.05" in the last hour) with winds S 8 mph and light rain, 0.04" added in the past hour. Temp 43ºF with a dew point of 37ºF: December standard. Eugene at 07:54 had a pressure of 1004.1 mb (29.65" alt), S winds at 15 mph, 0.01" of rain in the last hour and 45ºF with a 37ºF dew point. Salem at 07:56 had a barometer at 1003.0 mb (29.62" alt), down 1.5 mb in the last hour, S winds at a forceful 20 mph gusting 30, 0.03" rain in the past hour, and 44ºF with a 39ºF dew point. Since 03:56, winds at Salem have been 20 to 22 mph with gusts of 25 to 39. Peak wind 39 mph at 03:48--most likely related to the Vancouver Island low shifting northward. Portland at 07:53 had a barometer at 1004.1 mb (29.65" alt) with SSE winds at 9 mph, 0.03" rain in the last hour, and 44ºF with a dew point of 41ºF. At 01:53 winds were 22 mph gusting 32, with a peak gust of 33 mph at 01:41. Peak gust at Aurora was S 38 mph at 00:13. And, wow, currently at McMinnville, 07:53, winds are S 23 mph gusting 37 with that peak at 07:48. So, still windy in parts of the Valley even as the next low approaches from the west-southwest. Here at Corvallis, winds peaked at S 25 mph gusting 31 at 23:55 and 0.80" of rain had fallen in the 24-hours ending 03:55. Finley had 0.81" in the same 24-hour period. 08:20 PST.

08:40 PST: With today's and tomorrow's storms, the winds at 850 mb height will reach 75 to 100 knots. Lots of 80 to 90 knot barbs all over the western half of the state. NWS Portland (Tolleson), during the 03:23 discussion, mentions that 100 knots is five standard deviations outside of normal. So, for the incoming storms, wind velocities at the surface could very well be outside of normal. This is an interesting detail that could make for some very lively weather. 08:46 PST.

10:30 PST: Wow: Eugene, 09:54 observation, S 29 mph gusting 41, with a peak gust of 44 mph at 09:25. Strong winds have arrived! Temp is 45ºF with a dew point of 38ºF, and the barometer is 1005.0 mb (29.67" alt) and rising 1.0 mb in the past hour (low pressure 1004.0 mb at 08:54). Here at CVO, S winds have reached 23 mph gusting 29 at 09:35 and 10:15, with moderate rain with 0.12" accumulating in the hour ending 09:55 and 0.09" accumulating in the 20 minutes ending 10:15. Pressure 29.63" (alt) and steadyish, though rising from a low of 29.60" (alt) at 08:35. Gale force gusts in Salem, too: S 28 mph gusting 40 at 09:56, with the peak of 40 at 09:48. Pressure 1002.3 mb (29.60" alt), up slightly from 1002.1 mb (29.50" alt) at 08:56. At Portland, the winds were still quite light: SSE 8 mph at 09:53, with the barometer at 1003.0 mb (29.62" alt). Moderate rain with 44ºF and a 41ºF DP.

On the most recent satellite photos, 18:30 UTC [shown below], the center of the low appears to be at 46ºN and 128ºW and moving ENE toward Hoquiam. The HPC analyzed the low at 988 mb for the 07:00 timeframe. With the barometers rising in the Valley, it looks like the low will go north of here, but I wonder how much of the barometric response may be due to a leading warm front moving through the area. We'll see how the temperatures respond in the next few hours.

Looking at the Oregon Coast, North Bend had maximum winds so far of S 28 mph gusting 49 at 09:15, and a low pressure of 1003.1 mb (29.62" alt) at 07:55. Altimeter at 29.70" at 10:35, with winds of S 22 mph gusting 37. Temperature 48ºF with a dew point of 39ºF. At Newport, the most recent wind observation at 10:31 shows SSW 38 mph gusting to 62. That's high-wind criteria! At the same time, the barometer was at 29.53" (alt) and at its lowest point (so far). Winds were S 39 mph gusting 55 at 10:11. At 09:55, Astoria had a pressure of 997.8 mb (29.47" alt) with winds at S 20 mph gusting 41. At 08:55, the winds were S 20 mph gusting 47. Lots of special observations after 09:55. At 10:44, the altimeter had fallen to 29.43" (!) and winds were blowing at S 26 mph gusting 45, with a peak wind of 46 mph at 10:33. Now a new observation has come in: S 31 mph gusting 54, with the peak gust at 10:55, and altimeter at 996.3 mb (29.42" alt). Wow. This looks to be a potentially significant, but narrowly-focused windstorm in progress.

All right, the 11:00 AM observations are now up for the Valley. Eugene, 10:54, S 23 mph gusting 32 with a peak of 38 mph at 09:56. The barometer is falling again at 1004.7 mb (29.67" alt). Corvallis, 10:55, S 23 mph gusting 32, with a peak wind of S 23 mph gusting 35 at 10:35. Salem, 10:56, S 28 mph gusting 44, peak gust 45 mph at 10:39, with the barometer at 1002.1 mb (29.59" alt) and showing a downward tendency. McMinnville, 10:53, S 28 mph gusting 40. Portland, 10:53, S 15 mph gusting 24, with a pressure of 1002.7 mb (29.61" alt) with a downward trend. Aurora and Hillsboro both have gusts in the 20 to 30 mph range.

The 10:52 report from Newport showed winds at S 47 mph gusting 62, with the temperature up to 52ºF from 48ºF in the previous report. The pressure is 29.53" (alt) and steady-ish. North Bend at 10:55, S 25 mph gusting 41, with the barometer at 1005.8 mb (29.70" alt) and steady. That's a +9.5 mb gradient between OTH and AST. 11:12 PST.

11:24 PST: Wind gusts through the trees are getting quite loud now. The rushing sounds like a busy superhighway at times. Rain continues to fall. The 11:15 observation at CVO had winds at S 30 mph gusting 35. That's one of the highest 2-minute winds I've seen there. Altimeter down to 29.62". Rainfall 0.20" in the hour ending 09:55. Heavy.

Oh, WOW! Newport S 46 mph gusting 78 at 11:11 with altimeter down to 29.52". Seventy-eight!!! This is serious. 11:29 PST.

12:18 PST: Looks like the low is moving into Southwest Washington right now. Newport was shredded: At 11:34, the observation showed winds at SSW 55 mph gusting 82. Gusts over 80! Rare, indeed, for the airport station. The 11:51 and 12:13 observations showed SSW 45 mph gusting 68 and SSW 49 gusting 68. This is simply a major windstorm for the Newport area. Astoria at 11:55, S 33 mph gusting 69! Peak gust at 11:53. Pressure is 996.0 mb (29.41" alt), and the temperature is now up to 50ºF from 48ºF an hour ago.

Comparatively, Portland's readings are amazing. At 11:53, the winds were S 8 mph, with the barometer at 1003.4 mb (29.63" alt) and rising. Temp at 44ºF with a dew point of 42ºF. Winds at Aurora are SW 5 mph (11:53) with the barometer at 1003.0 mb (29.62" alt), after being SSW 15 mph gusting 26 at 10:53. But McMinnville had S 28 mph gusting 36 at 11:53, with a peak of 40 mph at 11:36. Strong winds just to the south of the Metro Area! Salem, at 11:56, had S 24 mph gusting 35, with a peak of 43 mph at 11:40. SLP 1002.1 mb (29.59" alt). Notice the negative gradient from SLE to PDX. Kind of weird, but helps explain the low winds up north. Eugene, at 11:54, had S 23 mph gusting 37, with the peak of 37 at 11:50. Pressure 1004.4 mb (29.66" alt) and roughly hanging steady.

At 11:53, the pressure at Hoquiam was 995.7 mb (29.39" alt) and still falling, with an altimeter of 29.37" at 12:25. Winds had jumped from E 15 mph during the former observation to SE 36 mph gusting 44 by the latter observation, with a temperature jump from 42ºF to 52ºF (!) in that half-hour. Looks like low center is very near Hoquiam now.

Doppler shows heaviest rain up north, over NW Oregon and SW Washington, including the northern Valley. Seems like that's were the leading frontal boundary is, and this may also help explain the lighter winds in the North Valley. 12:36 PST.

12:40 PST: Just looked out the window. A cascade of rain thunders outside. So, that area of high precipitation seems to be all over the Valley. [At far distances from the Doppler station--such as over the southern Willamette Valley--the 10 cm signal likely overshot much of the cloud cover, and precipitation.] 12:41 PST.

12:51 PST: Our lights have been flickering a bit in the last 30 minutes. Wind gusts still occasionally tare through the trees around the house. CVO observation at 12:35 showed S 25 mph gusting 35. 12:51 PST.

13:35 PST: Newport, ONP, at 12:32, had winds going at an incredible SSW 58 mph gusting 83, with the temperature up to 54ºF, and the altimeter down to 29.52". Since then, the wind reports have gone: SSW 52 mph gusting 72 at 12:51, SSW 52 mph gusting 72 at 13:12 and 54 mph gusting 69 at 13:31 PST. At Astoria, a report at 12:20 showed S 31 mph gusting 61, and after that, at 12:55, wind reports have ceased, though we get a barometric pressure of 996.7 mb (29.43" alt) and rising. Hoquiam at 12:53 shows S 40 mph gusting 51 with a peak gust of 52 mph at 12:38. The barometer was down to 995.1 mb (29.38" alt). Going north to Quillayute, at 12:53 the barometer read a low 988.7 mb (29.20") with SSE winds of 13 mph gusting 25, which escalated to SSE 22 mph gusting 35 at 12:08. Note the gradient between Hoquiam and Quillayute for the 12:53 observation period: +6.4 mb. UIL had 0.37" of rain in the hour ending 12:53.

Looks like the low in going in a bit further north, like into the tip of the Olympic Peninsula. Winds seem to have reduced a bit down here: S 24 mph gusting 31 at 13:15, with the altimeter showing a rising trend at 29.66", and S 23 mph gusting 29 at 13:35 with altimeter unchanged. 13:44 PST.

15:11 PST: Looks like the wind is picking back up at Eugene. At 13:54, S winds were 25 mph gusting 38, with a peak of 41 mph at 13:43, and at 14:54, S winds were 28 mph gusting 38, with a peak gust of 40 mph at 14:28. The barometer was falling at 1005.1 mb (29.68" alt) at 14:54, down from 1005.6 mb (29.69" alt) at 13:54. Temp and DP 46ºF and 42ºF during most recent obs.

Here, at 14:55, the CVO winds were S 24 mph gusting 31, showing a downward trend, with the altimeter at 29.65" also trending downward.

Newport is also showing a downward trend, with SSW 47 mph gusting 61 at 13:52. Altimeter 29.54" and going down from 29.56" at 13:12. Wind reports resumed at Astoria at 14:14, with SSW 29 mph gusting 59 noted at that time. The 14:55 regular report showed SSW 33 mph gusting 56, with a peak gust of 59 at 14:08. The pressure read 997.6 mb (29.46" alt) and rising slowly.

The lights just dimmed twice in the past half-minute. Kind of worries me: Without power, I lose the internet, and my connection to all this great data. Hopefully the electrons will keep flowing!

Hoquiam at 14:53 had S winds at 38 mph gusting 46, with a peak gust of 54 mph at 14:10. The barometer read 996.3 mb (29.41" alt) and rising from the low of 995.1 mb (29.38" alt) at 12:53. At Quillayute's 14:53 observation, the wind blew gently at SSW 8 mph and the barometric pressure had elevated to 991.7 mb (29.28"). Lowpres, like at Hoquiam, was at 12:53 and has already been noted at 988.7 mb. Looks like the low landed around 13:00, and is now well inland. Pressure rises are being arrested by the approach of the much bigger low that still is outside of 140ºW and is in the vicinity of 40ºN. A huge moisture plume is already reaching into Oregon and stretches all the way to Hawaii. Looks like the next low is actually at 44ºN and 142ºW, a developing wave on the second storm's massive front [22:30 Z (14:30 PST) water-vapor satellite photo shown below].

The current low center went north of Puget Sound Country. This is evidenced by: South gusts to 40 mph at Olympia at 14:54 with a rising temperature at 44ºF, and S gusts to 46 mph at Sea-Tac at 14:31 with the temp up to 46ºF at 14:53 and changing to rain the morning snow that occurred between 06:53 and 07:53. Low pressure at SEA so far was 996.6 mb (29.41" alt) at 14:53. Hmmm… Gusts to 35 mph at Chehalis and 43 mph at Kelso early this afternoon make the much lighter winds in Portland Metro quite interesting. The Gorge Effect may have been the primary cause of the lower gusts.

Well, they've picked up now: S 25 mph gusting 33 at PDX at 14:53. Southerlies elevated after a period of calm at 12:53. Aurora had a S gust to 44 mph at 14:02. So the North Valley is now on par with the rest of the Willamette Basin. 15:38 PST.

20:12 PST: Now, the situation gets weird, as today's surface low fades away, and the big "monster" storm moves into the offshore waters. The situation is, perhaps, a bit out of my experience due to those very fast 850 mb winds. The huge cloud shield that marks the leading warm front covers a huge swath of the Northeast Pacific. It would easily cover all of WA, OR, CA, ID and NV. The significant wave ahead of the primary low is now centered around 46ºN and 136ºW. Buoy 46005, at 18:50, had a barometric pressure of 29.10" and falling 0.04" in the past hour. SSE winds are 14 mph gusting 18. Buoy 46006, out at 40.89ºN and 137.45ºW, had a barometric pressure of 28.80" and rising slowly at 18:50, with a lowpres of 28.72" at 16:50. The center of the primary low is still to the west of this station.

Substantial wind drama from today's storm continued at some stations. Astoria has had some amazing wind readings: At 17:55, S 28 mph gusting 74 (peak at 17:51). At 18:12, SSW 33 mph gusting 67 (peak at 17:58). And, after a period of somewhat lower winds, at 19:55 SSW 33 mph gusting 61 (peak 19:54). Hoquiam had peak winds of S 36 mph gusting 61 at 16:53, with the peak at 16:44. The last report out of Newport was SSW 47 mph gusting 61 at 13:52. Another surge of winds brought velocities up to SSE 28 mph gusting 47 at North Bend around 19:35. Crescent City hit SSE 36 mph gusting 52 at 16:56.

Winds have calmed down considerably in many parts of the interior of western Washington and Oregon. Salem still shows brisk winds, with S 21 mph gusting 32 at 07:56, with a temperature of 49ºF, dew point 45ºF and the barometer at 1002.4 mb (29.60" alt) and on a slow downward trend it would seem. Peak winds hit at 13:56 with S 28 mph gusting 43 with a peak gust of 54 mph at 14:43, likely the highest in the Valley. SLE also had gusts of 48 mph at 13:26 and 15:15, so a pretty decent gale persisted there for a couple of hours. Winds are still howling at McMinnville, with S 33 mph gusting 41 during the current 19:53 observation, peak at 19:52. These are the highest winds of the day for MMV.

Even the entrenched cold air at Bellingham couldn't endure the onslaught of the incoming low. NNE winds of 9 mph at 12:53 with a 32ºF temp and 30ºF dew point, were accompanied by light freezing rain. At 13:42, the wind shifted to NNW 3 mph, and the temperature climbed a bit to 34ºF with the dew point staying the same. No precipitation. At 13:53, winds were calm, and the pressure neared its low at 996.4 mb (29.35" alt). At 14:14, winds had shifted to ESE at 10 mph gusting 20 and the temperature leaped to 41ºF with a dew point of 34ºF, and light rain was carried on the breeze. By 14:53 winds had shifted to SSE at 17 mph gusting 39, the temperature rose to 42ºF with a 35º dew point, and the low pressure of 994.2 mb (29.33" alt) had been reached. Quite the change of conditions in a short period. 21:08 PST.

December 3, 2007: Monday

00:12 PST: (Corvallis, OR) Wind is picking up on the coast again, even as it continues to relax in the Valley.

At 22:11, Astoria had a peak gust of S 77 mph, perhaps the highest wind gust at this location since the Columbus Day Storm. Average winds have been as much at SSW 44 mph at 22:44. At 23:39, Hoquiam had a gust of SSE 67 mph. Average winds reached S 45 mph at 23:44. Newport (ONP) is still offline, but NWPO3 is still reporting, part of the NDBC suite of stations. At 00:00, S winds had climbed back up to 49 mph gusting 59 from S 39 mph gusting 48 the hour before. The peak gust at this station was 36.6 m/s, or 81 mph at 14:07, a close match to the peak of 83 mph at ONP. Continuing the look outside of primary stations, some spectacular readings can be found: At 23:22, the winds at Cape Blanco were 94 mph gusting 113. Thanks to Steve Pierce for e-mailing that to me. At the Yaquina Bay Bridge, SW winds reached 62 mph gusting 85 at 11:49, and a peak gust of 88 occurred at 12:49. Lincoln City had a S gust to 91 mph around 15:19. The Tillamook Airport had a S gust to 66 mph at 19:30. Mt. Hebo had a gust to 83 mph around 16:04. The Cape Meares anemometer is now toast, after going through a major beating. At 19:47, the system read SW 69 mph gusting 114, and at 20:02 the anemometer read WSW 70 mph gusting 111. After that, a caution flag is placed on data with rapidly diminishing average wind speeds, despite high gusts (N 19 mph gusting 92 at 20:31!) and by 21:01, the anemometer reads "CALM" despite high winds continuing at other stations.

More inland, in the Coast Range, the maximum gust at Rockhouse1 RAWS has been 51 mph on several occasions, the most recent at 23:12 and out of the SW. The wind is still tearing at McMinnville, with S 30 mph gusting 43 at 23:53, and a peak gust to 48 mph at 23:31. Salem was down to S 21 mph gusting 28 at 23:56. Wow, wind is beginning to really blow at Hillsboro now. S 26 mph gusting 43 at 22:53, and S 30 mph gusting 40 at 23:53. Peak gust S 40 mph at 21:40, a whopping 51 mph at 22:33 and 47 mph at 23:36, all out of the S. This is amazing: HIO isn't usually one to lead the pack. And this while PDX is mired in ESE winds of 16 mph gusting 22! Temp at PDX 44ºF with 44ºF dew point, and at HIO 51ºF/49ºF. 00:50 PST.

00:52 PST: This wind event could overwhelm me! Astoria at 00:28 had S winds of 48 mph gusting 64 mph with a peak gust of 69 mph at 23:57. And at 00:37, Astoria reported S 43 mph gusting 74, with that slamming gust at 00:31. Well, I think I should try to get some sleep. 00:59 PST.

14:29 PST: Yep, it happened. I've been overwhelmed.

With the current series of storms, history is definitely being made. Incredible amounts of rain have fallen and continue to stream from the low, gray and misty sky. This is especially true in the Oregon Coast Range north of a Newport to Salem line. Mudslides have occurred, rivers are rising to flood-stage very rapidly, and many roads are closed. Some of the closures are due, of course, to a heavy loss of trees during an overnight gale on the coast that, to use a pun, took my breath away. Getting back to the deluge, all of western Washington and northwest Oregon north of Cottage Grove is under flood warning.

For the 24-hours ending at 06:00, Mt. Hebo had 8.55" of rain, South Fork Raws 8.79", Cedar Mtn Raws 7.92", and Lees Camp 9.90". Less Camp had 11.70" in the 48-hours ending 06:00. In the Valley, some 24-hour totals include Hillsboro with 2.98", Scappoose 3.66", Portland Airport 1.75", Forest Grove 3.70", Corvallis 1.47" and Eugene 1.35". Here in Corvallis, we've added nearly an inch since about 06:00.

I just looked out the window. The landscape is awash in rain and mist. A gray, dripping world where visibility is definitely below a mile. A saturating moderate fall of liquid drops seems to just bleed from the atmosphere. Blustery winds shimmy the trees. And it's warm out there. Comparatively. A muggy, humid 55ºF now. Up to 57ºF at times.

The last report from Astoria was at 04:03, with winds at SSW 32 mph gusting 64. At 03:55, winds at AST were SSW 36 mph gusting 68 with a peak gust of 76 mph at 03:00. Pressure was 998.2 mb (29.48"). At 02:55, Astoria reported its maximum gust at SSW 44 mph gusting 85, peak at 02:47. That's simply incredible. For the central and north Oregon coast, this is the strongest windstorm since Columbus Day 1962. And the current event has lasted much, much longer. Evidence from still-working anemometers seems to suggest at least a 24-hour-long duration for 60 mph and higher gusts, even for Astoria. This beats most, if not all, storms. Most windstorms occur within a 2 to 6 hour window, with "long" ones being in the 8 to 12 hour range. The current storm is off the charts.

Hoquiam's last report was at 00:53, with S 49 mph gusting 81, peak at 00:47. Pressure was 995.4 mb (29.39" alt) at this time. This compares to 995.9 mb (29.41" alt) at the same time in Astoria. The 81 mph gust ties the HQM peak for the Columbus Day Storm, the peak for the November 3, 1958 storm and the peak for the Thanksgiving Day storm of 1983. Given that high winds likely continued at HQM for some time after the last observation, a new high-gust record may have been set by this new storm.

The HPC 18:00 UTC [10:00 PST] surface analysis puts a deep 959 mb low at about 46ºN and 135ºW [shown below], with a triple point over north Vancouver Island and a long cold front trailing from that southward along 126º to 127º W. At 21:00 UTC, the surface analysis shows the cold front moving through the Willamette Valley, with the big surface low, now 966 mb, at about 47ºN and 131ºW. There could be another round of strong winds in the Valley as this major low moves inland over British Columbia.

Around noon I was interviewed by Stuart Tomlinson of the Oregonian about the big windstorm. Told him my thoughts about this being the strongest event since the Columbus Day Storm for the coast, and how I was impressed with the level of forecasting that went into this system. The NWS, Portland, got the wind effects essentially spot-on, and this two to three days before the big gale. I think George Taylor sent Tomlinson my way, probably because of an e-mail I wrote this morning and sent to my weather buddies at 11:16 PST:

"I'm sure the amazing triple-digit wind gusts on the Oregon Coast will catch many a person's eye--mine, too. A gust of 129 mph in the vicinity of Tillamook is quite amazing. The peak gust of 83 mph at KONP and 86 mph [should be 94 mph] at KAST, stations that both had data interruption and therefore may have experienced even higher values are themselves amazing. They both stand as the highest gusts since the great Columbus Day Storm. Astoria came within ten mph of the 1962 peak of 96 mph--though that 10 mph difference is significant. Hoquiam at least tied the 81 mph gust noted on October 12, 1962. So, it seems, that the coast may have just been battered by a ~45-year windstorm, plus or minus. "I've be wondering how the Columbus Day Storm memory might 'fall'... Piecemeal it would seem. One region at a time. Of course, this just exemplifies the amazing impact of the CDS, as it did so much over such a wide area."

That 86 mph for AST should be 94, but the gist of the message is right. 15:20 PST.

The Aftermath: Dec 04, 2007 and Beyond

December 4, 2007: Tuesday

08:14 PST: (Corvallis, OR) The rain broke into showers during the evening, and southerly winds picked up to 20 to 26 mph with gusts of 24 to 32 at CVO. The altimeter showed a steadily rising trend from a brief downturn to 29.78" at 13:35 to 29.91" at 18:55 and 29.99" at 21:55. Winds slowly diminished after the latter observation and shifted to the SSE, with the temperature hovering around 55ºF to 57ºF, occasionally up to 59ºF. The major surface low weakened during the whole period, and at 07:00 was landing on the British Columbia coastline just to the north of Vancouver Island as a 990 mb system. Corvallis had 1.55" of rain in the 24-hours ending 03:55. For the same time period, rainfall totals include: 2.18" at Finley (max 24-hour 3.01" at 16:45, and max hourly 0.21" at 15:45), 1.28" at Salem (max 1-hr 0.28" at 21:56), 1.33" at Portland (gusts to 41 mph in the last wind episode in the afternoon), and 1.51" at Hillsboro.

As I drove my daughter back to Tigard, I heard on the radio that I-5 between Portland and Seattle was completely closed. Said the road could be shut down for 38 hours. Recommended flying if a trip to Seattle was needed. Highway 6 also shut down. And Highway 101 between Tillamook and Astoria was blocked in many places by slides and fallen trees. This is just a small sampling of a big road closure list. Despite the challenge of blocked roads, I'm going to try to get to the coast today and see if I can get some photos of the damage. Heading to Newport, and will see how far I can get on 101. Looks like Hwy 20 and 34 are open.

I better gear up and head out the door. Daylight doesn't last long in December. 08:33 PST.

21:32 PST: I left for the coast around 09:30, and returned at 20:30. I took Highway 20 out to Newport, then headed north on Hwy 101 through Depoe Bay, Lincoln City, Tillamook, Bay City, Garibaldi, Rockaway, and out to Manhattan Beach State Park. Eleven hours of travel through a region that suffered some incredible damage from wind and flood. Very low stratus, some rain-bearing, hung over much of the coast, and, at times reached the surface to make a dense fog. These clouds shrouded much of the distant landscape, and at times even the forests alongside the road were lost in the gray mist. The fog seemed to reflect upon coastal communities that had been seriously pummeled and hadn't fully regained full consciousness from a knockout blow. A persistent grogginess that prevented one from grasping the full extent of injury to the landscape.

But, I saw enough. And fog didn't hide the ruin in the northern stretch of coast with its soothing out-of-sight-out-of-mind embrace. The damage exceeded anything I've seen from a significant windstorm, especially among the northern communities. But even in the southern part of my tour, the damage stood out: At least 48 trees fell across Hwy 20, most of those in the last 15 miles. That started things off. Once at Newport toppled trees became a common sight, and the further north I traveled, the worse the destruction became. Just when I thought things couldn't get any worse, I'd roll into a region with even heavier damage. After many miles, I ceased to be surprised. Damaged structures, not just toppled trees, eventually became commonplace. Based on what I could glean during my travels through fog and periodic rain showers, the storm's impact breaks into four fuzzy sections:

1) The southern stretch through Depoe Bay and into Lincoln City. Characterized by numerous treefalls, both due to root-failure and stem-breaks. Many tree-downed powerlines, including some large transmission lines. The breakage of some highway signs, typically those with 4" x 4" posts. 2) Lincoln City north to about Cloverdale. Characterized by local swathing of coastal forest with many trees across the road in places, some quite large. Downed large branches as numerous as twigs in a more normal storm. Light damage to house roofs, usually shingle loss. Some window breakage. Plastic store signs punched out. Some wooden fences downed. Obvious loss of electrical service. 3) Cloverdale north to about Tillamook. Characterized by: Trees as in 2). Many outbuildings and some houses with sheet-metal roofs and walls peeled off. Structures thrown out-of-kilter. Fences down. Structural debris strewn across farm fields. Frequency of broken highway signs is high enough that the sight of such damage seems as commonplace as snapped boles. 4) Tillmook north to Rockaway, and especially Bay City. Characterized by: As in 3). Broken windows more numerous, both on store fronts and houses, and usually boarded up by the time I arrived. Large percentage of houses had at least some shingle loss, with some down to the bare boards. Siding peeled off of homes and businesses. Fences of all types frequently laid flat. Many signs, especially Stop signs, broken. Especially around Bay City: Some structures, such as a wood-frame garage, and a large metal-framed public storage building, blown apart. Some houses lightly damaged, especially eave elements. Church steeple broken off and crashed in street. Masonry chimneys broken. Tree damage in nearby forestland incredible, with perhaps 20% to 40% trees lost or damaged.

Flooding contributed to the sense of disruption around Tillamook. Much of the section north of downtown had been inundated. By the time I got there, the water had receded, and I could continue northward on a highway covered in slick, brown silt. People worked hard to scrape the mud from the parking lots of stores and restaurants along Hwy 101. Some stores had opened, including a McDonald's that had suffered some roof damage, downed trees and a coat of mud in the parking lot, and had "Cash Only" notes posted all over the grounds.

Even among the widespread damage so clearly evident along the entire stretch of 101 that I drove, the destruction around Garibaldi and Bay City stood out in high relief. A church steeple, torn off in the gale and dashed to pieces in the street in Bay City, reminded me of photos of broken building spires from the Columbus Day Storm [more images appear in a storm photos section below]:

This public storage building had its roof torn off and walls disrupted as if it were made of paper:

At the above facility, a man unloading equipment from his van and into a garage-style storage room in a neighboring building told me that he had considered renting the smashed room just the day before. Fortunately the room that he finally chose ended up in a building that weathered the storm just fine.

In Lincoln City, the large sign below broke under the strain of hurricane-force gusts. A local anemometer, one ideally favored on a bluff over the ocean, registered a gust of 125 mph.

Parts of Lincoln City were still without power both when I drove through northbound, around 12:15 to 12:30 and on my return drive between 18:15 and 18:30. Cars stacked up at the intersections with dead stoplights as they became treated as four-way stops. On my way home, long after the sun had set and a misty darkness had settled over the Pacific shore, the drive through Lincoln City proved quite eerie. Whole sections were nearly pitch black, save for the lights of passing cars and trucks. A few homes and businesses had some working lights, probably generator fed. In the darkest section of town, patrons packed a restaurant with warmly glowing windows to capacity, like moths drawn to a lantern. Darkened stoplights were hard to pick out in the gloom, and I drove very slowly, ready to stop when I finally saw one of the three-eyed heads appear from the nearly black sky. Everyone drove slowly, save one fool in a 4Runner who felt the need to race the engine, and a general sense of emergency hung over the town.

Earlier, as I headed north, I saw lines forming at a gas station just north of Depoe Bay. Probably people streaming in from areas that still had the electricity out. Can't operate the gas pumps without the other "precious juice": electrons.

In response to the widespread destruction of electricity infrastructure, power crews were out in force putting the system back together. Repair trucks were parked on highway shoulders, in neighborhoods, at service stations, moving to their next destination. In essence, crews were everywhere, working hard. I saw several teams at work in the dark, fixing lines with the aid of truck-borne spotlights. Once, a bight blue flash illuminated the night from a transmission pole that was being examined.

States-of-emergency, by the way, were declared for both northwest Oregon and southwest Washington due to the storm. Helicopter and boat rescues were required in some communities inundated with near-record and record floods. A very large flood isolated the little town of Vernonia, and some rescues took place there. The section of I-5 near Chehalis that's under 10 feet of water probably won't open until Thursday at the soonest. Cell phone service was out in Lincoln. Indeed, during the height of the storm with the power out, the roads blocked by a rain of trees and cell service largely lost, the only ham radio communication made it out of the coastal strip. I caught these details, and more, on the radio as I traveled the wind-blasted coast.

Based on the presence of debris piles, it appears that a storm surge tide found its way into parts of Rockaway and in the vicinity of Hebo and Cloverdale. The buoys operated by the National Data Buoy Center recorded average wave heights as much as 44 feet, with possible individual waves in the vicinity of 60 to 70 feet. Buoy 46050, Stonewall Banks, just offshore of Newport, and one of my usual check-pionts Buoy 46029, Columbia River Bar, just offshore of Astoria, both broke loose during this major storm and floated free. They continued to send data as their positions shifted. I'm not sure if they've been retrieved yet. Most likely, they wont be returned to their stations until this summer, when the weather calms and the work effort can be scheduled. Which means two critical data-points will be lost for the rest of this strong La Niña winter. A tragedy, but also a reflection of the sheer intensity of the recent windstorm. 23:45 PST.

December 6, 2007: Thursday

21:31 PST: (Corvallis, OR) Some further impressions from my tour of the windstorm damage on Tuesday:

Low stratus that seemed to clamp onto the mountains, and coastal fog, dominated the weather. Occasionally, a light shower would dapple my windshield with misty drops. Sometimes a heavier fall of rain would soak the landscape. Most of the time, the precipitation seemed barely more than heavy drizzle, oozing from the low, sullen sky. Only rarely would a rent in the cloud reveal clean, blue sky above. Despite these clearings, I never once saw the sun. Only the blue-gray shadow of cloud caressed me, even when I could see a ragged blob of cerulean beauty. The fleeting patches of blue seemed to be a tease. A glimmer of hope among a landscape of shattered trees, ruined structures and tangled wires.

As I drove out on Highway 20, into the misty Coast Range and toward a windstorm-ravaged landscape full of unknowns, I saw many rainbows. These were broad, short patches of color, partial bows, not a full arc. More like a low, brilliantly colored sundog. The rainbows seemed to appear at random. Briefly, one would dance over a hillside, glowing cheerfully among dense cloud and curtains of rain. Then, a moment later, that blotch of color would be gone, soon to be replaced by a fuzzy Technicolor shroud that hung over an oak-savannah homestead. As I drove westward, the rainbows continued to shift. Each one marked a location where the sunshine poured through a rent in the cloudscape. Shafts of warmth just out of reach. Always, a cloud sat between me and the sun.

As the information on the storm has poured in over the past couple of days, it is becoming ever more obvious that the great gale of December 1-3, 2007 is one for the history books. A truly catastrophic event that, in a number of ways, is quite unprecedented. I've written and received many e-mails from weather-keen friends, more so than for any other storm, a situation that just adds to the eerie feeling about this situation. Add to this the big flood at Chehalis, where I-5 sits under ten feet of water, and there's a distinctive hurricane-Katrina-like feel about our recent windstorm.

Thanks to Steve Pierce, we now know that a 129 mph gust was recorded at the Fire Station in Bay City, with a sensor that's about 25 feet off the ground and well exposed to Tillamook Bay. I also recieved an e-mail from personnel who maintain the microwave station on Naselle Ridge forwarded to me by Cliff Mass. Looks like wind gusts reached 140 mph there before the anemometer was destroyed, along with part of the microwave antenna.

Some ODOT images of massive windthrow along Highway 26 have started circulating. And Steve Pierce, who's now out at Lincoln City, also took some more. Here's one of his shots:

In the photo, there are many stem-breaks. Hundreds. Combined with some root failures, especially on the shoulder of the hill to the left side of the image. Interestingly, after I sent the ODOT image to Steve Mitchell [of the University of British Columbia Faculty of Forestry], he replied that, based on the species and height/diameter ratio, that average winds around 40 mph (say gusts to 60) could have done the damage, if the stand had been previously opened up by a clearcut. This puts a lower bound on the wind velocity at the location of the windthrow. Nevertheless, the damage is spectacular to see.

Steve Pierce talked to some of the line crews, and they seemed to suggest that the wind damage happened to be worse in Seaside and Astoria than even in Bay City. I'm thinking about going up to Astoria, or at least Highway 26 where the windthrow is quite visible, tomorrow. Since I need to pick up Kesri in Tigard, I'm slated for a lengthy drive anyway. 22:21 PST.

December 10, 2007: Monday

14:42 PST: (Corvallis, OR) My second trip up the coast, this time from Newport all the way up to Seaside, revealed some amazing sights. I found some more structural damage in Bay City:

The above home had been built on the hill just to the north of the Bay City Fire House. A gust to 129 mph reportedly occurred at the Fire House. Based on some sleuthing by Steve Pierce and I, the Fire House’s anemometer proved to be a Davis Weather Monitor, with the sensor well exposed to southerly winds. The cups are perhaps a little too close to the roof, and are right along the western edge of the structure, and this may have contributed to higher readings. However, a large percentage of the houses and buildings around the fire station had at least some light damage, usually stripped shingles and in some cases broken windows and minor damage to wood-built portions of homes (usually porches).

Here’s a dramatic scene from Rockaway Beach:

This rockaway photo again shows the more typical type of direct-wind damage when it occurred. Usually weaker or very exposed portions of homes suffered the wrath of the heavy gusts. Clearly wind speeds were just reaching thresholds of structural tolerance in these coastal communities.

After Rockaway Beach I slowly rolled through the heavily disrupted communities of Wheeler, Nehalem, and Manzanita. In Wheeler, an entire railroad crossing arm structure had been blown over, right next to a wooden shed that had a distinct cant. Nehalem had some swathing take place right in town, with lots of lodgepole pines snapped. One fell on an old pickup truck. I entered the vast and tall forests of Oswald West State Park. The south end had the usual scattered trees down. By the north end, I caught enough glimpses of heavy tree falls in the thick woods to start getting an ominous sense. Feeling pressed for time, I moved through Cannon Beach fairly quickly, and with the frequency of downed trees increasing I turned east on Highway 26. I knew where I was heading: The Blast Zone, as Steve Pierce called it, about three to five miles inland on the Sunset Highway. I had already seen a number of photos of the damage, but, of course, even as dramatic as the scenes are, they simply don’t reveal the full magnitude of the drama that took place.

Much of the heavy windthrow took place on Weyerhaeuser land, and indeed there a harvest was underway, which opened up the stand to a direct broadside attack to the high winds. The managed forest didn’t have a chance. But that doesn’t lessen the sense of power, and chaos created by this windthrow event. Much wind damage made it all the way down into the narrow valley, with broken trees on houses, on a small motorhome, all over the transmission lines along Highway 26 and, before the snapped boles had been cleared away, across the road in many locations. A new house being built, with the lid completed and shingled, lost some of the roof, boards and all. Clearly some very strong wind made it over the hills to the south and southwest and all the way into the valley. That fact was an eye-opener: What appeared to be a fairly sheltered valley reeled under a high-wind attack that clearly matched the gale that scraped through the immediate coast. Almost, it seemed like a deep flood had poured down from the ridges.

After I returned to Corvallis, I wrote this e-mail to my weather friends:

"I'm back from seeing the 'Blast Zone' along Hwy 26. The magnitude of the damage is something outside of my experience. I've seen windthrow before--just not so extensively. Steve Pierce made some excellent observations about the area, and the damage that occurred. I concur with it all. I'll add that the damage in the valley, at the lowest elevation, is simply incredible. Whole sections of trees, including giant Sitka spruces, were simply yanked over. Lines toppled like an old fence-row. Patches tumbled into a big mess. The transmission lines along Hwy 26 were simply overwhelmed--crews worked frantically the whole time I was there, and here it is many days after the event. "Trees fell in every direction. I mean every. One lowland grove looked like a bomb had gone off in the middle, and all the trees toppled in radial fashion from the center. I can only imagine a fist of air descending on those trees from nearly straight above, an intense current. The forests looked like a massive flood had poured down the hills (snapping entire stands on the way) and then through the valley, largely perpendicularly to the long axis of the lowland. The airflow seemed to have a similar density, and water-like fluidity as the Mt. St. Helens blast ('Blast Zone' seems all the more appropriate to me now). This effect, with tree-after-tree simply pushed down, bent, snapped, mussed-up, etc., carried across the lowland toward Seaside (I did make it to Seaside, by the way--more on this in a different e-mail). In this seemingly 'sheltered' valley, a number of structures and vehicles were crunched by toppled trees. At least one new house under construction physically lost part of its recently-completed roof to the power of the wind--boards and all. The level of damage in the valley was pretty much 100% comparable to what occurred right along nearby shorelines (such as Tillamook and Bay City), and the Blast Zone is something like 3 to 5 miles inland. The sheer magnitude of disruption can not be overemphasized. "It appeared to me that the first signs of this jaw-dropping magnitude of wind damage can be gleaned at Oswald West park, especially along the north half. Things progress to even higher levels of insanity northward to the all-out mayhem of the Blast Zone."

Now, consider all the damage that I’ve commented on for northwest Oregon. As the e-mails about the storm keep arriving, it’s becoming quite clear that southwest Washington may have endured even a more serious blow. I just got an e-mail from Cliff today that a 119 mph gust was recorded on a privately-owned Davis anemometer at Bay Center along the east shores Willapa Bay. Other extreme gusts in Pacific County include 137 mph at Holy Cross and a gust to 140 mph on Naselle ridge that damaged a microwave-relay antenna. Naselle, of course, is favored for high winds. And a NOAA National Ocean Service station at the north end of Willapa Bay recorded a peak 2-minute wind of 54 mph with a peak 5-second gust of 75. This implies shorter-duration gusts in the range of 85 to 90 mph. Not quite the 119 mph noted at Bay Center. It would be interesting to get the specific details on how the sensor is set up at Bay Center, and Holy Cross for that matter. I’m heading up to Seattle on Friday, and plan on taking the coastal route through southwest WA on my way. I’ll have a better sense of the damage after this trip.

My tour of Seaside revealed damage quite similar to that experienced from Tillamook northward. Power remained out in parts of that community as I drove through—in the evening of December 7, 2007. Electrical service was being restored in sections. Just when I entered a convienience store with just a few generator-fed lights operating, all the overheads lit up. A power crew worked just down the block. Indeed, the presence of utility crews all over the region was quite impressive. They worked incessantly on restoration activities as I did my survey. In many places, traffic was stopped on the highway as trucks were positioned to fix downed lines and snapped poles.

Five counties in northwest Oregon, I believe Lincoln, Tillamook, Clatsop, Columbia and Yamhill were declared Federal Disaster areas, which will help bring in funding for repairs. And Major Disaster was declared for six southwest Washington counties: Pacific, Grays Harbor, Mason, Lewis, Thurston and Kitsap. My sister lives in Kitsap, which was simply inundated by the storm. Her basement flooded.

Taking a look at the preliminary F6 climate data, Sea-Tac had 3.77” of rain on December 3rd and 1.55” on the 2nd. The WFO office in Seattle had 4.15” and 1.48” respectively. Olympia had 3.19” and 2.12” and Quillayute had 3.50” and 1.95”. 15:54 PST.

December 15, 2007: Saturday

08:13 PST: (Seattle, WA) As with my two previous surveys on the coast, words to describe the widespread and high-frequency destruction that I witnessed are difficult to find.

It certainly appears that wind damage is heaviest on the Oregon Coast between Bay City and Astoria, and perhaps the pounding reached a crescendo between Seaside and Astoria. Damage seems to taper just slightly at Astoria, depending on location. Going into Washington, the area at the north end of the Oregon Coast Highway bridge (over the Columbia), say around Megler and McGowan, strangely had much lighter damage. Perhaps this is due to being so directly exposed to Pacific gales (the weak stuff just doesn't last). Tree and structural damage seemed to pick back up around Ilwaco, which suffered similarly to Lincoln City, and then returned to Bay-City-levels around Long Beach.

North Seaside and Gearhart suffered a major beating. Widespread broken trees, typically lodgepole pine with a mix of thick-boled Sitka spruce were snapped clean and left in broken heaps across the landscape. Along the shoulders of Highway 101, I saw more that one Sitka spruce that had a diameter-at-breast height of at least a meter broken near ground level. Interestingly, many of the broken pines didn't show any pathological conditions. Broken stems, yanked-off branches, proved to be from healthy trees with no rotten wood. Here's a photo of damage to pine trees:

Amazingly, broad patches of willow in some areas showed extensive damage. The short, flexible trees suffered mostly snapped branches, but the breaks were numerous—endemic. Entire groups of trees had a squished, battered feeling, similar to a how a patch of grass appears after it had been stepped-on and the foot removed. Many large trees broke at the Golf Course south of Astoria.

Most houses suffered roof damage, the typical shingle loss. Barns and outbuildings everywhere lost sheet-metal lids and siding. At least one large barn building had completely collapsed. I didn't  any photos in this area because of much traffic and a desire to get into Astoria and Long Beach before the day waned into night. With all the broken and listing trees, and a general light structural damage, this region of the coast really had the sense of being battered relentlessly by the Northwest's equivalent to a typhoon. Even nearly two weeks after the event, with cleanup well underway, the landscape felt disconcerting and eerie to me.

At Astoria, the section of town on the south side of the hill, roof damage proved to be widespread and almost disturbingly common. Whereas, on the more-sheltered north side of the hill, somewhat east down the shores of the Columbia River, little evidence of wind disruption showed. However, areas of the north-facing slope to the extreme west, nearest the Pacific Ocean, were battered considerably. A shot from the south side:

The shattered barn isn't very far from the Astoria Regional Airport and that 85 mph gust. Structural damage such as this occurred all over the area, including broken signs, shattered windows and the all-to-common flattened fencelines. Broken windows were common in parts of downtown Astoria. The roof of the Lamplighter Motel suffered considerable damage, which propagated to the rod-iron rails, and the business signs were broken.

Ilwaco and Long Beach both had destruction similar to the north Oregon Coast. Long Beach suffered more than Ilwaco. Many large trees, typically scattered Sitka spruce among numerous pines, were snapped or uprooted in Long Beach... Most had been cleared away by the time of my survey, and all that remains are stumps and root wads, but it's evident that the town has a much more "open" character than before. Many signs were punched out, bent or outright folded over. Some windows broke. Eaves were ripped off, along with parts of roofs (boards and all) in a select few cases, as in the accompanying photo:

The above Long Beach hotel lost a significant portion of its roof. Indeed, there's so much wreckage on the coast, I could spend weeks there trying to make sense of it all. Especially all the tree disruption. Very interesting local situations resulted from this storm. Small areas of extremely heavy tree breakage--nearly 100% loss--next to nearly unharmed areas perhaps a block away. I've photographed a few of these areas, one of which turned up on a Rockaway Beach neighborhood where nearly all the pines snapped in the gale. I hope to get back to a few of these sites over the next couple of months for a more detailed assessment.

An area of particular interest is in the vicinity of Nehalem, Bayside Garden (situated similarly to Bay City: at the north end of a bay) and Manzanita. These communities were right in the middle of some major swathing events. Trees snapped off everywhere, sometimes in long lines. Some areas of pine forest, especially in Manzanita, have a very distinct lean to the north--whole stands. Clearly these trees have suffered considerable root damage, yet remain standing. I think some of these trees have a high chance of toppling this winter as the usual storms sweep ashore.

I left Long Beach around 15:45, and the daylight had begun to dim. Reasonable visibility accompanied me as I headed east and then north on Hwy 101 to Raymond, following the east shore of Willapa Bay. From the junction of Hwy 4 and Hwy 101 and continuing northward, areas of windthrow occurred. Nearly all, if not all, were associated with recent clearcuts. A particularly large area of downed trees occurred in the South Nemah area. The frequency of stem breaks, and in some cases shattered Sitka spruce trees of titanic stature, was awesome. I couldn't get any photos due to the low light levels, and a growing rainstorm as a cold front swept toward the coast which added to the gloom. The kinds of structural damage so common to the immediate coastal communities I had toured also proved evident in Raymond, even in the dark. Plenty of missing signs, and some lost sheet-metal roofs. Many broken trees in the vicinity of Raymond, and continuing up to Aberdeen, with areas of windthrow evident in the dark based on piles of trees cut out of Hwy 101 yet still resting on the shoulder. Indeed, the highway had been blocked in numerous places by the windthrow events, which seemed to traverse a SSW to NNE line in most areas. The road must have been closed for some time after the storm. From Aberdeen, I took Hwy 12, then 8, to Olympia. Treefalls were evident on Hwy 12 to about mile post 18.

This brief summary doesn't catch everything I saw, but it captures the gist of the damage: The December 1-3, 2007 windstorm was truly an extreme event. The Great Coastal Gale.

A Major Non-Classical Event

Based on peak wind gusts only, it appears that for a relatively small section of coastline, between approximately Newport, OR, to Hoquiam, WA, the December 02-03, 2007, windstorm was the strongest since the Columbus Day Storm. In that region, the station with perhaps the best wind record is Astoria. Table 4, below, provides a sampling of peak gusts from high-wind events at AST:

Storm Event	AST Peak Gust mph (3-sec)	Other Name
12-Oct-1962	96	Columbus Day Storm
03-Dec-2007	94	"Great Coastal Gale"
14-Dec-2006	82	Hanukkah Eve Storm
15-Jan-1951	80
16-Jan-2000	78
03-Mar-1999	78
13-Feb-1979	76	Kitsap Blowdown
17-Dec-1961	76
20-Dec-1961	76
16-Jan-1986	75
03-Nov-1958	75
12-Dec-1995	74	Big Blast
15-Dec-1997	74
20-Jan-1993	72	Inauguration Day Storm
27-Apr-1962	71
27-Dec-2002	70
26-Mar-1971	70
09-Jan-1953	70
14-Nov-1981	68	Friday-the-13th Storm
07-Jan-1953	66
27-Oct-1950	65
Note: 5-sec gust values taken from 1995 to 2006 are adjusted to 3-sec ("instant") values via a 1.19 factor.

 

Data Interruptions at Key NWS Stations: Actual Peak Gusts?

Unusually High Wind Gusts Combined With the Storm's Long Duration:
A Potent Mix

Locally Extreme Wind Speeds

Figure 16, below, takes a close look at winds in southwest Washington. John Dunsmoor of Pacific County kindly supplied the data from various microwave sites, marked on the map with dark blue dots. Apparently there has been some controversy over a few of the extreme numbers measured in Pacific County. The gust of 140 mph at Radar Ridge is incredible, as is the peak of 125 mph at Holy Cross. However, the values don't seem to be out of line with readings from other sources, such as a gust of 125 mph from a sensor that's 70 feet above ground level on a low coastal ridge in Lincoln City, OR, and the well-repeated (on this webpage ;o) gust of 129 mph clocked at a low-elevation, but well-exposed, site in Bay City, OR. Indeed, the 140 mph gust measured in Pacific County fits within a limited historical context. The November 3, 1958 windstorm produced a peak gust of 81 mph at Hoquiam, and a gust of 161 mph at the long-gone Naselle radar site (Radar Ridge). Naselle, like Mt. Hebo in Oregon, is a high-elevation site known for extreme winds. Holy Cross, like Radar Ridge, is also a high-elevation site (relatively speaking). The gust of 92 mph at Raymond, and 87 mph at North Cove were measured on well-exposed sensors that are 100 feet above ground level. Sensors at standard elevation, 10 meters (33 feet), probably would have had somewhat lower gust speeds.

Figure 16: A detail of peak gusts, official and unofficial, covering Young's Bay, Willapa Bay and Grays Harbor. The coastal strip of Clatsop County, OR, and Pacific County, WA, appears to have been "ground zero" of this windstorm, with Tillamook and Grays Harbor Counties also taking a serious hit.

The Pacific County stations also recorded 24-hour average wind data. Some readings for the entire day of December 3rd are shown in Table 6, below. The anemometer on Radar Ridge was destroyed early on the 3rd, and the 24-hour reading is from the day before--December 2nd readings at the other stations were lower than the December 3rd readings. For example, Holy Cross had a 32 mph 24-hr wind on December 2nd. Likely, the 24-hour wind at Radar Ridge was even higher on December 3rd than the 59 mph measurement at Holy Cross. Trees are put under incredible strain as winds approach 60 mph. At Holy Cross, as measured on a sensor that's 40 feet above ground level, winds averaged near 60 mph for an entire day! With a long pulse of forceful wind speeds such as measured on these sensors, it is no surprise that forests suffered the loss of so many trees.

Location	24-Hour Average Wind	Day of Wind Reading
Holy Cross	59 mph	Dec 3
Radar Ridge	50 mph	Dec 2
North Cove	42 mph	Dec 3
Long Beach	37 mph	Dec 3

Powerful Upper-Level Winds

Newport, OR, Vicinity