What's Next for the Pacific Northwest?
Neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Conditions
Sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical Pacific Ocean have continued to cool over the last several weeks, contributing to the official end of the El Niño event that began in March 2015. Neutral ENSO conditions are now present. Models indicate that La Niña conditions will develop by late summer (July through September period) and persist through the winter of 2016-17. At this time, the strength of the La Niña is uncertain, but a "La Niña Watch" has been released.
What does this mean for Washington in the coming months?
The CPC July-August-September (JAS) temperature outlook has increased chances of above normal temperatures for the entire state, with chances exceeding 50% on the three-tiered scale. For JAS precipitation, there are increased chances of below normal precipitation for the entire state.
The outlook for July-August-September (JAS) is also indicating above normal temperatures statewide (and for the entire US). There are equal chances of below, equal to, or above normal precipitation for the entire state, though eastern OR an southern ID have increased chances of below normal precipitation.
Remember that these outlook percentages are based on a tercile system, and therefore the chances of below, equal to, or above normal temperatures or precipitation are split into equal probabilities of 33%. When there is a greater than a 33% chance of an occurrence, it should be looked at as a slight tilting of the odds in favor of that outcome.
Last Updated: 6/16/2016
Climate Prediction Resources
NWS Local 3-Month Temperature Outlook
The links below provide access to global and regional climate predictions.