ENSO-neutral

Neutral ENSO conditions exist in the equatorical Pacific Ocean, according to the Climate Prediction Center (CPC). During the last 4 weeks, sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) throughout the western and central equatorial Pacific Ocean have remained near-normal while those in the eastern equatorial Pacific were between 0.5 and 2 degrees Celsius below normal. A majority of the models are predicting neutral conditions to persist through summer 2013.

What does this mean for Washington in the coming months?

The CPC three-class June-July-August (JJA) temperature outlook has equal chances of below, equal to, or above normal temperatures for a majority of the state. Most of the US is expected to have warmer than normal temperatures, however, and this extends into southeast WA as well. For precipitation, the JJA outlook has increased chances of below normal precipitation statewide with higher chances of drier conditions in eastern WA.

The late summer (July-August-September; JAS) CPC three-class outlook is very similar: there are increased chances of above normal temperatures in southeast WA and increased chances of below normal precipitation statewide.

Last Updated: 5/16/2013

NWS Local 3-Month Temperature Outlook
Select a location plotted on the map to view the local outlook.

The links below provide access to global and regional climate predictions.

• The Current State of the Tropical Pacific:
• Climate Prediction Center
• Climate Prediction Center - ENSO Discussion
• Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory
• Predictions of the Tropical Pacific:
• Climate Prediction Center - ENSO Outlook
• International Research Institute for Climate Prediction
• European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
• NOAA/ESRL/PSD Linear Inverse Modeling SST Anomalies Forecast
• Predictions of U.S. Climate Anomalies
• Climate Prediction Center - U.S. Outlooks
• NOAA/ESRL/PSD Seasonal Forecast Guidance
• International Research Institute for Climate and Society