What's Next for the Pacific Northwest?
La Niña Conditions
La Niña conditions are continuing to weaken in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, and conditions are expected to shift to neutral within the next few months. ENSO forecast models show neutral ENSO conditions emerging during the March-May season, and neutral conditions persisting through the summer. ENSO forecasts for the upcoming fall are historically poor at this time of year, so little can be said for the ENSO expectations next winter (2018-19).
What does this mean for Washington in the coming months?
The current seasonal forecasts from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) are primarily based on seasonal forecast model guidance. The CPC May temperature outlook has equal chances of below, equal to, or above normal temperatures for all of WA. On the other hand, there are higher chances of below normal May precipitation for a majority of the state. The northeastern-most area of the state is a little different, with equal chances of above, equal to, or below normal precipitation for April.
The CPC outlook for May-June-July (MJJ) is indicating a warmer and drier than normal 3-month average for the entire state. The temperature outlook is calling for warmer than normal temperatures for the state, with slightly higher chances of above normal temperatures in southwestern WA. For precipitation, there are higher than normal chances of below normal precipitation statewide for May-July.
Last Updated: 4/19/2018
Climate Prediction Resources
NWS Local 3-Month Temperature Outlook
The links below provide access to global and regional climate predictions.