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Climate Outlook What's Next for the Pacific Northwest? La Niña or not? Since summer, the current state of ENSO remains classified as "neutral" by the CPC and is expected to remain neutral through the Fall. The probability is low, but a few models suggest that warmer ENSO conditions will develop and result in a weak El Niņo by the end of the year. However, the majority of model forecasts suggest that ENSO neutral conditions will persist through the end of the year and likely through Spring 2009. What does this mean for Washington in the coming months? The Climate Prediction Center's (CPC) 3-month outlook continues to suggest an increased probability that temperatures will be below normal in western Washington, while in eastern Washington, there is an equal chance for above, below, or normal temperatures for the August-September-October period. For precipitation, conditions are not likely to improve in eastern Washington. The 3-month CPC precipitation outlook calls for a greater than 33% chance that precipitation will be below normal in central washington and greater than 40% chance further east. Another factor is the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, which has had a negative polarity since September 2007, and has intensified in amplitude over the last month (PDO index values). The NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory's PDO forecast model, suggests a continuation of negative/cold PDO throughout the rest of 2008. Last Updated: 8/18/2008 Climate Prediction Resources NWS Local 3-Month Temperature Outlook 
The links below provide access to global and regional climate predictions.
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