What's Next for the Pacific Northwest?
Neutral ENSO Conditions
Neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are still present in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) were near-normal throughout the equatorial Pacific during the last week and near-normal to above normal over the last month. Neutral conditions are expected to last through the summer. ENSO forecast models favor El Niño conditions at about 65% for the September through October period, and most models are predicting El Niño development for the 2018-19 winter.
What does this mean for Washington in the coming months?
The current seasonal forecasts from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) are primarily based on seasonal forecast model guidance. The CPC August temperature outlook has higher chances of above normal temperatures for all of WA, with a higher likelihood of above normal temperatures for the western two-thirds of the state. The August precipitation forecast indicates increased chances of below normal precipitation for western WA. Eastern WA has equal chances of below, equal to, or above normal precipitation for August.
The CPC August-September-October (ASO) temperature outlook is calling for warmer than normal temperatures statewide. For precipitation, similar to the August outlook, there are increased chances of below normal ASO precipitation for western WA. Eastern WA has equal chances of below, equal to, or above normal precipitation for the period.
Last Updated: 7/19/2018
Climate Prediction Resources
NWS Local 3-Month Temperature Outlook
The links below provide access to global and regional climate predictions.