What's Next for the Pacific Northwest?
Neutral ENSO conditions still exist in the equatorical Pacific Ocean, according to the Climate Prediction Center (CPC). During the last 4 weeks, the sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) remained above normal in the equatorial western Pacific Ocean, warmed to above normal in central equatorial Pacific, and have remained below normal in the eastern equatorial Pacific. Models are predicting neutral conditions to persist through winter 2013-14.
What does this mean for Washington in the coming months?
There is much uncertainty in the seasonal forecast models for the upcoming months in the Pacific Northwest. La Niña and El Niño give seasonal forecasters the best insight into the upcoming conditions, and unfortunately we do not have that signal for this winter. The CPC three-class winter (December-January-February; DJF) temperature outlook has equal chances of below, equal to, or above normal temperatures throughout the whole state. The precipitation forecast is similar: there are equal chances of below, equal to, or above normal precipitation for the entire state.
Remember that these outlook percentages are based on a tercile system, and therefore the chances of below, equal to, or above normal temperatures or precipitation are split into equal probabilities of 33%.
Last Updated: 11/21/2013
Climate Prediction Resources
NWS Local 3-Month Temperature Outlook
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