OWSC

Climate Outlook
What's Next for the Pacific Northwest?

Neutral ENSO Conditions

Neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are still present in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) were near-normal throughout the equatorial Pacific during the last week and near-normal to above normal over the last month. Neutral conditions are expected to last through the summer. ENSO forecast models favor El Niño conditions at about 65% for the September through October period, and most models are predicting El Niño development for the 2018-19 winter.

What does this mean for Washington in the coming months?

The current seasonal forecasts from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) are primarily based on seasonal forecast model guidance. The CPC August temperature outlook has higher chances of above normal temperatures for all of WA, with a higher likelihood of above normal temperatures for the western two-thirds of the state. The August precipitation forecast indicates increased chances of below normal precipitation for western WA. Eastern WA has equal chances of below, equal to, or above normal precipitation for August.

The CPC August-September-October (ASO) temperature outlook is calling for warmer than normal temperatures statewide. For precipitation, similar to the August outlook, there are increased chances of below normal ASO precipitation for western WA. Eastern WA has equal chances of below, equal to, or above normal precipitation for the period.

Last Updated: 7/19/2018


Climate Prediction Resources

NWS Local 3-Month Temperature Outlook
Select a location plotted on the map to view the local outlook.

Quillayute Port Angeles Hoquiam Centralia Olympia Seattle-Tacoma Mount Vernon Astoria, OR Hillsboro, OR Portland, OR Troutdale, OR Government Camp, OR Hood River, OR The Dalles, OR Pendleton, OR Richland Walla Walla Lewiston, ID Pullman Spokane Republic Omak Ross Dam Bellingham Plain Cle Elum Mt. Rainier-Paradise Yakima Ellensburg Wenatchee Ephrata

The links below provide access to global and regional climate predictions.