What's Next for the Pacific Northwest?
El Niño Conditions
El Niño conditions are currently present in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, and are expected to stick around. All 4 Niño indexing regions have had warm weekly sea-surface temperature (SST) departures from normal exceeding 1 degree Celsius, and the magnitude of the above average SSTs have increased over the last 4 weeks. The "El Niño Advisory" that was released on March 5 is still in effect. Model predictions are now showing relatively high chances that the El Niño will persist through the calendar year. Chances that the El Niño will persist through spring and summer exceed 90%. While the El Niño is not expected to impact WA weather this spring and summer, there is some historical indication that temperatures will remain warm with increased chances of drier than normal conditions west of the Cascades and a tendency for wetter conditions east of the Cascades.
What does this mean for Washington in the coming months?
The CPC three-class summer (June-July-August; JJA) temperature outlook has increased chances of above normal temperatures for the entire state, with chances of warmer than normal temperatures highest in the western half of the state. For JJA precipitation, there are equal chances of below, equal to, or above normal precipitation in eastern WA, but western WA has higher chances of below normal precipitation for the summer.
The outlook for July-August-September (JAS) is also calling for increased chances of above normal temperatures statewide. The precipitation outlook is similar to earlier in the summer as well: the western half of the state has increased chances of below normal precipitation, while the rest of the state has equal chances of below, equal to, or above normal precipitation.
Last Updated: 5/21/2015
Climate Prediction Resources
NWS Local 3-Month Temperature Outlook
The links below provide access to global and regional climate predictions.