What's Next for the Pacific Northwest?
Neutral ENSO conditions still exist in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, according to the Climate Prediction Center (CPC). During the last 4 weeks, the sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) have remained above average throughout the entire equatorial Pacific Ocean, with the largest warm anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific. Models are predicting the development of El Niño conditions late this summer or in the fall. On March 6, the Climate Prediction Center issued an "El Niño Watch", which is still in effect. There is greater than a 70% chance of the El Niño developing this summer and over an 80% chance of development in the fall.
What does this mean for Washington in the coming months?
The CPC three-class August-September-October (ASO) temperature outlook has increased chances of above normal temperatures for the entire state. For precipitation, there are equal chances of below, equal to, or above normal precipitation statewide.
The autumn (September-October-November; SON) CPC three-class outlook is reflecting the El Niño signal. The outlook is calling for higher chances of above normal temperatures statewide. The precipitation outlook shows increased chances of below normal precipitation for the entire state, with slightly higher chances of drier conditions west of the Cascade Mountains.
Last Updated: 7/18/2014
Climate Prediction Resources
NWS Local 3-Month Temperature Outlook
The links below provide access to global and regional climate predictions.